Rating Action: Moody's upgrades Novelis Inc's CFR to Ba2; outlook stableGlobal Credit Research - 31 Aug 2022New York, August 31, 2022 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") upgraded Novelis Inc.'s ("Novelis") corporate family rating (CFR) to Ba2 from Ba3, Probability of Default Rating to Ba2-PD from Ba3-PD and the ratings of senior unsecured notes of Novelis Corporation and Novelis Sheet Ingot GmbH to Ba3 from B1. The Speculative Grade Liquidity Rating remains SGL-1. The outlook is stable."The ratings upgrade reflects Novelis' strengthened balance sheet following the reduction in gross debt since FQ1 2021, leading positions in packaging and ground transportation markets, a geographic breadth of its global operations and its ability to maintain a strong credit profile commensurate with Ba2 rating in a potentially distressed economic environment when the company might have to increase borrowings to fund its large growth program" said Botir Sharipov, Moody's senior credit officer and lead analyst for Novelis.Upgrades:..Issuer: Novelis Inc.....Corporate Family Rating, Upgraded to Ba2 from Ba3....Probability of Default Rating, Upgraded to Ba2-PD from Ba3-PD..Issuer: Novelis Corporation....GTD Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Upgraded to Ba3 (LGD4) from B1 (LGD5)..Issuer: Novelis Sheet Ingot GmbH ....GTD Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Upgraded to Ba3 (LGD4) from B1 (LGD5) Outlook Actions: ..Issuer: Novelis Inc. ....Outlook, Remains Stable ..Issuer: Novelis Corporation....Outlook, Remains Stable..Issuer: Novelis Sheet Ingot GmbH....Outlook, Remains StableRATINGS RATIONALENovelis' Ba2 CFR reflects the company's large scale and significant market position in a number of end markets including can packaging, where it enjoys a leading market share. The CFR also considers the company's broad geographic footprint with operations in North and South America, Europe and Asia. Novelis' margin-on-metal business construct allows the company to pass through aluminum costs on nearly all of its sales through contracts or hedge exposure, mitigating the impact of aluminum price volatility. Despite this pass-through pricing model for a large portion of its business, the company remains susceptible to input cost volatility during the interim periods through a metal price lag effect.The impact of the metal price lag and cost pressures has been evident as the combination of very high aluminum prices, regional premiums and rising freight, labor and energy costs amid stronger demand from certain end-markets and supply chain bottlenecks resulted in a working capital build-up of about $851 million in the LTM ended June 30, 2022. Despite significantly higher working capital and other inflationary headwinds, in the LTM, Novelis generated $2.2 billion in Moody's-adjusted EBITDA and $392 million in positive free cash flow (net of dividends to Hindalco). Moody's expects strong operating cash flow generation to continue in FY2023 given the recent decline in aluminum prices and regional premiums.Despite strong performance in FY2022 and in FQ1 2023, the company's financial results have been impacted by supply chain and end-market disruptions including semiconductor shortages, strike at one of its plants in Asia during the December quarter as well as labor, freight and energy cost increases, particularly in Europe where the company has 11 operating facilities and faces a risk of natural gas rationing between 1 August, 2022 and 31 March, 2023. Novelis passes through a portion of higher energy costs to customers, with the balance partially offset by price increases, hedged through derivative contracts or absorbed by the company.Novelis continues to focus on value-added products as it expands its rolling and recycling capabilities to capture the growing demand for sustainable packaging products and increasing use of aluminum in the automotive market while reducing the share of commodity type businesses. Novelis has recently completed the 200kt automotive finishing line greenfield expansion at the company's Guthrie, Kentucky facility, new 100kt automotive finishing line at its facility in Changzhou, China and 100kt casting and recycling expansion in Pindamonhangaba, Brazil to support the demand growth in the beverage can market. All three projects are expected to meaningfully contribute to the revenues and cash flow generation from FY2023 onwards. The company has also recently announced a new 5-year, $3.4 billion organic growth program that includes investments into 5 strategic projects in US and Asia, including a new Greenfield Rolling Mill ($2.5 billion) in Alabama. The fully integrated, low-carbon aluminum facility will have an initial flat-rolled capacity of 600kt with hot & cold rolling, recycling, casting and can finishing capabilities. The mill will also have the flexibility to produce automotive and specialty aluminum products.Moody's expects Novelis to generate about $2.2-2.3 billion in Moody's-adjusted EBITDA in FY2023, a moderate y-o-y growth driven by full-year contribution from the recently completed projects and gradual recovery in auto build rates in North America. Moody's also estimates that Novelis will be modestly free cash flow positive in FY2023 but, due to peak growth capex spending, will generate negative free cash flow in FY2024 and FY2025, Moody's forecasts that Novelis will utilize its asset-based revolving credit facility (ABL) to help fund its growth capex and maintain the adequate cash levels on the balance sheet. Under this base case scenario, Debt/EBITDA, as adjusted by Moody's, is expected to be in the range of 3-3.5x during the FY2023-2025 period, which is commensurate with a Ba2 credit rating.The stable outlook anticipates that Novelis will maintain its focus on operating costs and leveraging its pricing power to continue delivering strong earnings and cash flow generation. The outlook also assumes the company will remain disciplined in deploying capital and will maintain its excellent liquidity position.Novelis' excellent liquidity (SGL-1) is supported by its $1.04 billion cash position as of June 30, 2022 and the recently upsized and extended $2 billion senior secured asset-based revolving credit facility (ABL) maturing in August 2027 (unrated), subject to certain springing requirements concerning timing of repayment of the term loan and other debt facilities. The ABL is secured by accounts receivable and inventory. At any time, the availability under the ABL is less than the greater of (a) $150 million and (b) 10% of the lesser of the facility commitment or the borrowing base, the company will be required to maintain a minimum fixed charge coverage of at least 1.25x. Availability is viewed as remaining sufficient such that this will not be tested. Novelis is expected to maintain its excellent liquidity profile.The company's secured term loan facilities (unrated) have a covenant restricting senior secured net leverage to no more than 3.5x and interest coverage ratio covenant of at least 2x. In addition, the company has short-term credit facilities in Korea, Brazil and China to support operations in these countries. The Ba3 rating on the senior unsecured notes reflects their effective subordination to the significant amount of secured debt under the term loans, the ABL and priority payables. The notes have a downstream guarantee from Novelis Inc. and are guaranteed by all of Novelis' existing and future US restricted subsidiaries, certain existing Canadian and other non-US foreign restricted subsidiaries.As a producer of flat-rolled aluminum products, Novelis faces a number of ESG risks, particularly with respect to air emissions, energy intensity, water use, wastewater discharges and site remediation. The company is subject to many environmental laws and regulations in the regions in which it operates. That said, Novelis is a leading recycler of aluminum, which is less energy intensive in the rolling process than the production of primary aluminum. Approximately 57% of the company's raw material input is sourced from recycled aluminum. In April 2021, Novelis announced a commitment to become a net carbon-neutral company by 2050 or sooner, and by 2026, to reduce its carbon footprint 30% waste to landfills by 20%, energy intensity by 10%, and water consumption by 10% (based on a baseline of fiscal 2016). Governance risk is average for Novelis. Although the company is 100% owned by Hindalco Industries Limited, publicly traded Indian aluminum and copper producer, Novelis follows a balanced capital allocation policy. In May 2021, Novelis announced a new capital allocation framework that prioritizes organic growth opportunities and $2.6 billion in debt reduction from peak leverage in June 2020 with a medium-term net debt ratio target of about 2.5x, while setting the dividend payout (to Hindalco) target range of 8-10% of post-maintenance capital expenditure adjusted free cash flow, subject to the discretion of the board of directors.FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGSMoody's would consider an upgrade of Novelis Inc.'s credit ratings if leverage (adjusted debt/EBITDA) improves to and is sustained below 3x, adjusted EBIT margin is sustained above 8% and (CFO-Dividends)/Debt increases to and is sustained above 30%.Novelis' ratings could be downgraded if liquidity, measured as cash plus ABL availability, evidences a material deterioration, if company makes substantial debt-financed acquisitions or if shareholder returns meaningfully exceed the capital allocation framework targets established by Hindalco Industries, the ultimate parent company of Novelis Inc. Expectations of significant production rate cuts by the company or its customers, or an extended slump in the end-markets served could lead to negative pressure on the ratings. Quantitatively, ratings could be downgraded if the adjusted EBIT margin is expected to be sustained below 5% or (Cash flow from operations less dividends)/debt is sustained below 15% and leverage, measured as debt/EBITDA ratio, is expected to be sustained above 4x.Headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, Novelis is the world's largest producer of aluminum rolled products. The company operates through four regional segments, North America, Europe, Asia and South America. While Novelis sells into a number of end markets, the company generates about 50% of sales in the can sheet market, although sales to the automotive market are increasing as a percentage of sales. Novelis generated approximately $18.4 billion in revenues for the twelve months ended June 30,2022. Novelis is ultimately 100% owned by Hindalco Industries Limited (unrated) domiciled in India.The principal methodology used in these ratings was Steel published in November 2021 and available at https://ratings.moodys.com/api/rmc-documents/356428. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on https://ratings.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.REGULATORY DISCLOSURESFor further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. 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For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the issuer/deal page for the respective issuer on https://ratings.moodys.com.For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. 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Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website https://ratings.moodys.com.Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://ratings.moodys.com/documents/PBC_1288235.The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. 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